U.S. Auto Sales to Slow

Cox Automotive expects U.S. auto sales to slow down during the second half of 2024 (which, shockingly, already begins on Monday).The projection is 15.7 million units sold throughout 2024, which, even with the slowdown, would be a 1.3% increase compared to 2023. 

So far, for the first half of 2024, sales have been up 2.9%, compared to 2023. But there are plenty of concerns that this momentum will not be able to carry through the rest of the calendar year. Vehicle inventory levels are growing, but there is still concern over the economy, interest rates, and even the presidential election. All in all, it could work out well for the consumers, if the supply well exceeds the demand.

Due to Covid, there was a slowdown in car manufacturing and even the manufacturing of the chips needed for these cars or their keys. Rental car companies were selling off their inventory, because of the high need of vehicles throughout the country. But now that cars are being produced at a much higher rate (again), the inventory might start to exceed the necessity.

And many Americans have been waiting patiently to purchase a new car in recent years, hoping for the cost to go down. For those, the stars might align. “Higher supply means we officially bid farewell to the seller’s market that has defined the last four years… which means further deterioration in new vehicle grosses and dealer profitability,” said Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoke.

Sales winners from the first half of 2024, according to Cox, are General Motors, Toyota and Honda. If Toyota can keep this pace up, they will challenge GM for the top-selling automaker in the U.S. They topped all other competitors for the first time in 2021. On the flip side, the “losers” are expected to be Tesla (sales are down 14.3%) and Stellantis (sales are down 16.3%). Stellantis, which manufactures Chrysler and Jeep, has dropped to No. 6 in U.S. sales. Their CEO, Carlos Tavares, blamed this on “arrogant” mistakes.