Business

Happy Cyber Monday!

Are you taking advantage of all the deals today?

Black Friday has come and gone, leading into Cyber Monday today! Which is even better - as you can take advantage of great deals from the comfort of your own home now.

But Black Friday has extended from just one day to a whole week of deals now, which led to an increase in in-store shopping from Sunday through Wednesday. However, in-store traffic from Sunday to (Black) Friday was in line with the 2024 performance, year-to-date, overall, as it was down 3.9%, according to Sensormatic Solution ShopperTrak Analytics. In-store traffic is down 3% for 2024, year-over-year, overall. 

The data also showed that early afternoon is the most popular time for in-store browsing on Black Friday, as shopper traffic peaked between 2-3 PM for the second straight year.

“Retailers are changing their approach to meet shopper expectations, extending their deals and promotions beyond Black Friday itself to support a more convenient shopping experience,” explained Grant Gustafson, the head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solution. “The industry’s evolution over the past few years is a testament to the hard work that retail leaders have done to meet consumers where and when they want to shop.”

We’ll get the official data for this stretch from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, but it is expected to break records. U.S. retail sales are expected to reach a record-breaking $75 billion in that shopping period, which represents 5% retail sales growth from the same period in 2023.

This busy weekend will likely account for 8% of total holiday sales, which would be its highest share since 2019. The high prices this year might have helped with a big spending weekend, because of the discounts.

“I think people are waiting for those good deals,” R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai, explained to the New York Post. “People are willing to spend around large holidays and events.”

More than half of U.S. consumers plan to shop during at least one of the major sales days.

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Economy

How Will the New Immigration Plan Effect the Economy?

Trumps plan is “yuge”, what will the impact be?

One of the big talking points in the Trump campaign was immigration and his planned crackdown. But how will that impact America’s job growth?

Employment has grown at an average of 170,000 jobs per month, so far this year. However, with a crackdown of illegal immigration and the deporting of unauthorized migrants, estimates suggest that that growth could be reduced by 25,000 to 100,000 jobs next year. 

Immigration has added nearly 10 million people to this country’s population in the last three years, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. However, only a third of them came in on visas, work or student visas, or as refugees. Which means nearly 70% entered illegally - either without authorization, or by overstaying their visas. And there were already nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants living in this country prior to the surge. 

Looking back at a potential point of reference for the large deportation that might take place - the largest amount of removed immigrants occurred in 2009 (243,000), during the recession. That number averaged 126,000 a year for the next decade, when the job market was generally weaker than it is now.

A lower number of immigrant workers is believed to put pressure on wages and prices in sectors that employ a lot of such workers, such as construction, food processing, restaurants and hospitality. 

Immigrants who have arrived since Covid accounted for 1.8% of the U.S. population as of last year, according to the Census Bureau, but 8.1% of roofers, 6.7% of agricultural workers, 5.6% of construction laborers and 5.6% of maids and house cleaners.

“Those sectors are going to see a reduction in the labor supply,” said Wendy Edelberg, an economist at the Brookings Institution. “All else equal, that’s going to push up prices.”

Theoretically, it could open more job opportunities for American citizens. However, many are uninterested in working in those sectors. 

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Politics

The Plan to End the War in Ukraine.

Trumps said he will do it, but how?

President-elect Donald Trump said “I want them to stop dying,” in regards to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and said he’ll “have that done… in 24 hours.”

With President Trump being inaugurated next month, how can he make that happen?

“It’s like Christopher Columbus trying to see over the ocean, thinking he is headed for India,” Konstantin Gryshchenko, a former Ukrainian deputy prime minister and foreign secretary, said. 

Trump will have to overcome Russian recalcitrance, Ukrainian indignation and European disunity. Some are concerned that Trump will make a bad deal, just for the sake of getting one done to save face/for appearance. 

We do know one thing for near certain, Trump will cut off this country’s financial aid for Ukraine. 

He also appointed Keith Kellogg, a former national security advisor, as his special envoy to Ukraine. The 80-year-old Kellogg had previously laid out his peace plan for this war in some detail, writing for the America First policy institute in April.

He referred to the war as “an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies… has entangled America in an endless war.” It is the largest European war since World War II.

In short, a ceasefire will freeze the frontlines and both sides will be forced to the negotiating table. And, as Kellogg said, Trump’s softer approach with Putin (compared to Biden) will enable him to make a deal.

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Tech

Big Tech, A.I., and The Government.

AI expert Marietje Schaake sat down for an interview with The Guardian to discuss AI. She is a former Dutch member of the European parliament and is now the international policy director at Stanford University Cyber Policy Center, as well as being an international policy fellow at Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centred Artificial Intelligence. She recently came out with a new book entitled “The Tech Coup: How to save Democracy from Silicon Valley.”

She shared a lot of opinions on the tech space in the interview, including the fact that she believes the election of Donald Trump “changes everything.”

“He has brought specific tech interests closer than any political leader ever has, especially in the United States, which is this powerful geopolitical and technological hub,” Schaake explained. “There’s a lot of crypto money supporting Trump. There’s a lot of VCs [venture Capitalists] supporting him, and of course he has elevated Elon Musk… we’ll have to see how long the honeymoon between [Musk] and Trump lasts, and also how other big tech companies are going to respond. Because they’re not going to be happy that Musk decides on tech policy over his competitors. I’m thinking rocky times ahead.”

You can see more in the interview here.

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Global News

Russia, Please Don’t Fire the Missles

With Putin in charge, nothing is off the table.

There is growing concern following Russia’s use of its Oreshnik intermediate-range missile against Ukraine.

It was Vladimir Putin’s most aggressive signal since invading Ukraine. He has repeatedly extolled the missile in public statements, claiming that NATO has no way to intercept it and warning that Moscow could use it against Kyiv’s “decision-making centers.”

The missile is nuclear capable and can travel to London and Paris in just 20 minutes and to Berlin in 15. But, for now, Putin says it will be armed with multiple conventional warheads. 

However, it was still a clear departure from decades of the Cold War doctrine of deterrence. Missiles with multiple warheads have never been used to strike an enemy. 

“To my knowledge, yes, it’s the first time MIRV has been used in combat,” Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said.

And when it comes to the biggest wild card in all of this - that is probably Vladimir Putin.

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Sports

8, That’s Right 8, Overtimes

Rivalry week was in full swing, no more so than the 8 ot game between Georgia and Georgia State.

What a wild weekend it was in college football, as rivals typically meet on the weekend following Thanksgiving. This led to a brawl on the field and an 8 OT game.

The brawl occurred after Ohio State, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, lost to Michigan for the fourth straight time (the first time that has happened since 1991). It was a shocking upset, as Michigan was a 20-point underdog. Following the game, Michigan attempted to plant their flag in the logo of Ohio State, which the Buckeyes took offense to. A melee broke out between the two schools, which even led to the police using pepper spray on the two teams.

Meanwhile, Georgia erased a 17-point deficit to come back and beat their rival Georgia Tech in eight overtimes! It was the second longest game in college football history. The recent rule change leads to a two-point conversion contest following the second overtime. So even though it went to eight overtimes, it wasn’t quite as long as it might sound. Georgia narrowly escaped, keeping their playoff hopes alive.

There was also drama in UNC-NC State, Florida-Florida State and Arizona-Arizona State over the planting of flags. Or, the attempt to, at least…

It was a fun, wild weekend in the sport, capped off by Texas beating Texas A&M to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game on Saturday - becoming the first team to make an appearance in the conference title game in their first season in the SEC. Texas won the Big 12 last season.

Saturday is Championship Saturday in college football, leading into the new expanded playoff this year.

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