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Politics

Kamala’s 1st Interview

Big news in the Presidential race! One of the candidates will finally partake in their first interview!

With Election Day only 68 days away, Kamala Harris will be sitting down with CNN TONIGHT at 9 PM EST for her first, in-depth, on-the-record conversation (alongside Tim Walz) since replacing President Joe Biden. 

We’ll get to hear plenty from Harris in the coming weeks, as her campaign said yesterday that both candidates “have agreed to the exact same rules” for their September 10th debate, which will include unmuted mics, something former President Donald Trump denied. 

Harris would probably prefer the unmuted mics in an attempt to lay a trap for Trump to walk right into that night. Plus, with Trump’s propensity to interrupt, be harsh, use put downs, it could be spun as being misogynistic with his opponent, this time, being a woman… though that didn’t keep him from winning in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. 

Through these conversations/debate, we should also get a better feel for some of Harris’ plans, as it’s been a campaign that has been light on policy specifics thus far. Harris did roll out her most detailed proposal yet, just last week - a $5 trillion tax increase over the course of a decade. 

The Harris campaign is putting on a masterclass of how to win people over without conducting any interviews or laying out much of a plan/policies for her term. And yet, she has continued to gain ground.

In the meantime, Harris and Walz kicked off their latest bus tour in Georgia yesterday, while JD Vance was visiting key states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, to discuss the economy - maybe the hottest button issue of the whole election. 

All the while, special counsel Jack Smith filed a retooled indictment Tuesday against Trump in regards to the January 6th case, which Trump had previously pleaded not guilty to.

Trump will have to enter a new plea, despite the charges not changing, but prosecutors did waive the requirement for the former president to have to actually appear in court.

With less than 10 weeks to go, things will only continue to get more and more interesting!

From the Hill:

📰 Donald Trump Posts Crude Remarks about Kamala

🔆 Harris gains on Trump in Sunbelt

Economy

Yeah, We’re Still Talking About Rate Cuts

Are we getting over our skis, so to speak? Do we need to flip the telescope around? Should we insert more cliches to this opening paragraph?

Reuters is warning that despite the forthcoming interest rate cuts, should we be concerned about the economy moving forward? 

The process of the rate cut should begin next month at the Fed’s monetary policy meeting from September 17-18, with a 25 basis-point cut. 

But this comes with a warning from Allessio de Longis, senior portfolio manager and head of investments at Invesco Solutions. "What the market wanted was to hear that the rate-cutting cycle is starting. [However] is the Fed telling us that they're actually worried about the economy now? And if that is the case, maybe the excitement about the cutting cycle should take a different perspective," pondered Longis.

History shows that stocks tend to perform far better when rate cuts come against a background of resilient growth, instead of during a sharp economic slowdown. For example, since 1970, the S&P 500 has climbed an average of 18% one year after the first rate cut in non-recessionary periods. 

The monthly inflation reports will be released prior to the September 17th meeting: the personal consumption expenditures price index (August 30th) and the consumer price index (September 11th). Depending on the data provided by these reports, we could be headed towards a 50-basis point cut next month. Expectations for such a move were priced at 29% prior to Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, but have since increased to 35%. 

A key factor for stocks, in the aftermath of the apparent impending rate cut, is if it’s brought on by sinking inflation or because of a weakening labor market? The timing could also be beneficial too, as September is historically the weakest month for stock performance (the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.78 decline since WWII). A tight presidential race might also throw some havoc into the stock market mix. 

In closing, Andre Bakhos, managing member at Ingenium Analytics LLC explained that “the longer-term trends in stocks are rock-solid and any weakness is an opportunity to add exposure. We're going to get ... choppy, erratic, volatile moves because no one really knows what happens now that [Powell] has shown his hand.”

Around the Water Cooler:

📈 Buffets Berkshire hits a Billion Valuation

 📉 Asian Stocks Set to Slide on Nvidia News

Tech

Apple’s Next Big Announce Sept. 9th

Apple has announced the date for its next major event, September 9th, where it’s expected to debut its first generative AI phone. The event will take place at 10 AM PDT at the Steve Jobs Theater in Apple Park and will be streamed online and on Apple TV. This is one day later than originally planned.

The tagline of the event is, “It’s Glowtime,” as Apple will apparently get their “glow up,” as the kids would say, with the release of the iPhone 16. Embedded AI is expected to be a key feature of this new phone.

In June, Apple unveiled a lot of it’s AI plans at it’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference, such as personalized Genmoji (AI generated emoji’s) and a much smarter Siri, which will be able to be even more helpful now, by telling you what’s in your email inbox, answering questions about your schedule, and providing information like when someone’s flight will be landing, etc. 

It would also allow Siri to recall pictures taken years ago, or even learn the phone user’s preferences and personality over time.

If you recall, this was the same time Apple announced its partnership with ChatGPT creator OpenAI (much to the chagrin of Elon Musk), which is facing its own scrutiny and challenges currently.

iPhone 15 Pro Max users will likely be able to access at least some of the AI features, but the iPhone 16 is expected to be the first device designed fully with AI. However, not to bury the lede… but these features are expected to be rolled out over the next few years as updates to the phone. 

“This is going to be more of an evolutionary process, rather than some big cyclical iPhone,” explained Angelo Zino, a CFRA Research technology analyst. For example, the souped-up Siri shouldn’t be expected for more than another year. 

Meanwhile, one of Apple’s competitors, Samsung, has already dipped their toes in the AI water for their phones, which include their “circle to search” feature, which allows the user to quickly search for information with just a finger gesture.

Apple has yet to reveal how much the new iPhone may cost. CFRA isn’t modeling a huge price increase, but do acknowledge that the use of AI in the new phone could “increase prices across the board.”

At this event, Apple will also reveal new watches, AirPods and, potentially, new iPads, as well. Stay tuned!

In other news:

📱A Barbie phone, with no internet

💻 Google AI image generation

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World News

Ukraine Ups the Offensive

Ukraine has daringly upped their aggression in their battle with Russia. Ukraine made a sudden entrance into Russia’s Kursk region, which their President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said was to create a buffer zone in an attempt to halt further attacks by Russia across the border. 

However, Ukraine apparently hasn’t been able to be as aggressive as they would like… because of the U.S. 

How could this be? Well, the U.S. restricts the use of long-range ballistic missiles it provides to Ukraine, who wants to use them on military targets inside of Russia. This most recent advancement from Ukraine has increased pressure on the Biden administration to ease its cautious approach to the use of Western weapons in the escalating Ukrainian attacks.

In rebuttal, the Biden Administration has said that their caution is necessary to avoid retaliation from Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

“If we keep doing what we're doing, Ukraine will eventually lose," warned Phillip Breedlove, a retired U.S. General who led NATO in Europe from 2013-2016. "Because right now... we are purposely not giving Ukraine what they need to win.”

This, despite the U.S. already providing billions of dollars worth of military support. 

Lifting such restrictions “would strengthen Ukrainian self-defense, save lives and reduce destruction in Ukraine,” European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell wrote Monday on X (formerly Twitter) after Russia launched more than 200 missiles and drones at Ukraine.

Ukraine launched this most recent ground attack earlier this month, without first consulting American leaders. 

Around The Globe:

🇮🇱 Israels raids and expansion on the West Beach

🇳🇦 Namibia to kill 700 more animals

Sports

College Football is Here!

Week 0 was this past weekend in college football and gave immediate vindication to those who desired the expanded playoff that has come to the sport this year.

Florida State, who was robbed of a playoff berth a year ago, lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday as an 11-point favorite. Now, typically, that would be enough to end a team’s playoff chances. However, with 12 teams now being selected this year, and a spot reserved for the ACC champion, Florida State’s National Title hopes still have a pulse. 

FSU entered the game with a 54% chance of making the College Football Playoff. After the upset loss, that is now at 26%. Additionally, FSU WAS the favorite to win the ACC prior to kickoff, but has now dropped to 17%, behind Clemson’s 25% chance of winning the conference.

FSU will play Boston College this week as a 17-point favorite. For you sports bettors out there, allow us to point out that teams who play in week 0 are only 3-14 against the spread when facing a conference opponent in week 1 (as long as that conference opponent didn’t also play in week 0). So FSU might have another game that is tougher than expected, as this trend would suggest backing BC +17. But we’re just sharing data, not advice. 

From the Leagues:

🚫 2024 NFL Roster Cuts

🏀 Caitlin Clark breaks rookie 3-pt record