Business

Job Openings At Lowest Level in 3 Years

Not the best time to start job hunting.

Job openings continue to fall - in fact, all the way to their lowest level since January of 2021. Openings fell more than expected for the month of September, according to new data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

7.44 million jobs were open at the end of September, compared to 7.86 million in August. The fall was greater than anticipated and comes about a week before the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision on November 7th (next Friday). 

The original expectation was that the number would actually increase in September to 8 million jobs. However, the data also showed that hires increased in September: from 5.43 million in August to 5.55 million in September. The hiring rate also increased slightly: from 3.4% in August to 3.5% in September. 

Quit rates dropped from 2% in August to 1.9% in September. So all good things. 

The October jobs report is slated for release tomorrow. Wall Street estimates that 110,000 jobs were added in October, which would be down from 243,000 in September. 

“We saw a slight rebound in the hiring rate, which shows you that essentially the floor is not falling under the labor market. But instead, what we’re seeing is a gentle cooling of labor demand and less labor supply absorption, nothing catastrophic,” EY chief economist Gregory Daco told Yahoo Finance. Daco said there is “Much less tightness” in the labor market. 

Markets are pricing a Federal Reserve cut by 25 basis points next week at a 99% chance, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. We’ll find out soon enough.

Around the Water Cooler:

☕ Starbucks CEO to pause price increases.

🛒 U.S. consumers keep economy solid heading into election.

Tech

Apple Intelligence is Here

The tech giant has entered the A.I. space.

Following its June announcement, Apple Intelligence has finally arrived. It was part of the iPhone 16 sales pitch at launch, but those phones lacked the AI features… until now.

Apple Intelligence is the company’s all-encompassing branding for its AI tools, features and curios. It was first rolled out to beta testers, first in the developer preview and then the open preview. And now will be available as part of Apple’s updates to iOS, iPadOS and macOS.

It will feature, amongst other things, new proofreading and rewriting tools, live transcription for phone calls and Notes’ audio recordings, text summaries for websites, emails and all those transcriptions, notification (texts, emails, etc.) summaries, photo editing, and more. What will be missing, for now at least, is the ability to create your own emojis - something that was mentioned during the original sales pitch. 

According to those who have tested it, it won’t change your life as an iPhone user, but (for now, at least) add more subtle additions.

The update (iOS 18.1) became available on Monday for iPhone 15 and later models. iPhone users must update to iOS 18.1 and then join a waitlist to actually be able to access Apple Intelligence. Apple store employees have been trained to demonstrate these new features to customers. 

What to Know:

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💻 Lenovo outpacing competition in A.I.

Politics

Dems Going Big In New York and California

Dumping over 200 million into states they used to win with ease.

With Election Day just a few days away, an avalanche of money has been pouring into congressional elections in two states: California and New York. 

Roughly one in three (33%) independent expenditure dollars in House races have been spent in those two blue states this year, which is up from 20% in the 2022 election cycle, according to a POLITICO analysis. Those two states have attracted more out-of-state spending for House races than any other this year. They’ve also seen the greatest increases, both in dollars and percentage, of overall spending from 2022. 

With the influx of cash to these two states, it has led to significant spending drop offs in other states, such as Texas, Nevada and Florida. 

This comes after Democrats underperformed in the 2022 midterms, when embarrassing losses in New York and California contributed to the GOP seizing control of the house. To avoid a similar fate, more than $200 million of outside spending has come in for those two states in an attempt to win control over the narrowly divided house. A large portion of the spending is on commercials, which are much more expensive in New York City and Los Angeles - the two largest media markets in the country. 

The share of total outside spending has increased from 8% to 13% for New York from 2022 to now. It has jumped even higher, from 12% to 20%, in California. 

Overall, spending from the Democrats has rapidly increased since Kamala Harris entered the race. AdImpact found that Democrats have spent 73% more on Election Ads than Republicans in the final two months leading up to Election Day. Advertising from both sides since President Biden dropped out of the race has now exceeded $2 billion.  

Around the Hill:

🤐 Keep track of the political insults here, for real, Fox is tracking this.

🧑‍🤝‍🧑 Political rivals now campaigning together.

Finance

Big Moves Could Be Coming

Experts say Wall Street has yet to price in a Trump win.

There has been some evidence that market participants are starting to price in a victory for former President Donald Trump ahead of next week’s election: bitcoin is flying higher, the Mexican peso is tumbling and bond yields are rising. However, the stock market isn’t quite in that boat. At least not as strongly.

According to a Morgan Stanley strategist, U.S. stock-market strategist Mike Wilson, the stock market has NOT priced in a Trump victory just yet. He warns that renewables and tariff-facing consumer stocks could rise if Vice President Kamala Harris wins next week. 

Financials are the best-performing sector in October, with industrials third. Which would be in line with Trump being president, as his campaign has discussed demoting the Federal Reserve’s highest position holders which could lead to looser regulations. Industrials would also benefit if tariffs reduce foreign competition.

But outside of that sector, which also benefited from the strong earnings season, there hasn’t been much of a rise elsewhere, according to Wilson.

“Fundamental drivers have had a greater impact on financials, in our view, and will continue to influence the sector more so than the election outcome,” Wilson explained.

Meanwhile, the gambling market seems to have priced a Trump victory, as Bet MGM now has Trump as a -225 favorite (Harris as a +190 underdog) after both were -110 just a month ago. The -225 odds suggest a 69% chance of that happening. Polymarket, which tracks the betting market, has given Trump nearly a 70% chance of winning the Election, based on the wagers that have come in (which can also help move a sportsbook’s odds).

From the Street:

📉 S&P 500 futures slip after Microsofts poor reports.

💰 Bullish on gold, momentum builds heading into uncertain election.

World News

China Lost 1/3 or it’s Billionaires

They didn’t “misplace” them, China blames economic struggles.

China’s economy continues to struggle, as the country has now lost 36% of its billionaires. According to Hurun’s 2024 rich list, China has lost 432 billionaires since its high of 1,185 in 2021. 

China has been dealing with a prolonged housing crisis, high unemployment, high local government debt and weaker consumer demand - which has all hit the super rich, too, leading them to either leave the country or attempt to make their money elsewhere, outside of China. China is on track to see a record exodus of 15,200 high-net-worth individuals (people with liquid investable wealth of $1 million or more) in 2024, according to a report by investment migration firm Henley & Partners. 

China released third-quarter growth data earlier this month that showed it was its slowest in six quarters. In response, the government is promising stimulus measures to boost economic growth and has plans to approve more than $1.4 trillion in extra debt in the next few years, according to reuters. 

“With property prices falling and the economy generally tightening, it’s not a big surprise the numbers of super-wealthy are falling in China,” explained Kerry Brown, Professor of Chinese Politics at King’s College London.

Xi Jinping is also pushing for a “common prosperity,” which has been viewed as a call for billionaires to share their wealth. 

By the way, topping the list of Chinese billionaires this year was Zhang Yiming, the founder of TikTok owner Bytedance, with his fortune of $49.3 billion. 

Around the Globe:

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🇪🇸 Horrific flooding in Spain cause 95 deaths.

Entertainment

Kill Tony Makes Waves at Trump Rally

What did you expect from a roast comedian?

Did comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, of Kill Tony fame, actually Kill Tony…’s career? Or the election for Donald Trump?

Hinchcliffe, known for his roasting style of comedy and put downs, was part of Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City, making jokes at everyone’s expense. His joke about Puerto Rico, comparing it to an island of garbage, has not gone over well.

But how will it affect Pennsylvania, in particular? A key swing state that Democrats won by a narrow margin of 1.17% (about 82,000 votes) in 2020. And a state with a large Puerto Rican population - there are 600,000 eligible voters in Pennsylvania who are Latino. 

Following the rally, the Trump campaign was quick to distance itself, with a spokesman saying the remark “does not reflect the views” of Trump or his campaign. 

Obviously, on the other side, the Harris campaign saw an opportunity to pounce, as Harris said it was a sign of Trump “fanning the fuel of trying to divide” Americans.  

It seemed to be a political gift for the Democrats, just a week out from Election Day. 

What’s Happening:

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