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Politics

RNC, We Have a Running Mate

J.D. Vance, Vance Refrigeration, I mean Vice Presidential Nominee

Former President Trump made his first public appearance, as expected, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this week, just two days after the assassination attempt. Trump was seen with his right ear bangaged, following the gun shot wound. 

In the days since, there have been many questions of how this shooting actually occurred on Saturday, plenty of conspiracy theories (including a second shooter. Where have we heard that before?), and even an investigation into the matter. One thing is clear: whether you’re a conspiracist or not, there was some sort of failure of epic proportions on Saturday that allowed a 20-year-old to get that sort of shot off on a former President. 

There were also reports of an Iran plan to assassinate Trump, which is believed to not be connected to Saturday’s shooting. Oddly enough, John Hinckley, who was behind the last assassination attempt on a president, tweeted yesterday: “Violence is not the way to go. Give peace a chance.” Hinckley was released from prison two years ago, after shooting President Reagan in 1981, and now sells paintings online. 

In the aftermath of Saturday, Trump has gained in the polls. According to The Telegraph (and shared on the “Political Polls” twitter page), Trump had the advantage in the swing states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while Biden still led in Michigan. 

Trump also announced JD Vance as his Vice President. Vance has been a Senator from Ohio since 2023. At just 39 years old, Vance would be the second youngest Vice President in our history, which feels like a breath of fresh air during this era of geriatric presidents. 

You might know the name, JD Vance, from his 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.” It was later turned into a Netflix movie, which was released in 2020 and was directed by Ron Howard. The movie stars Amy Adams and Glenn Close and tells the story of Vance’s upbringing in Ohio. The movie received mixed reviews, as it was nominated for both Golden Raspberries and Oscars. Gabriel Basso played Vance. 

Current Vice President Kamala Harris has invited Vance to participate in a debate, hosted by CBS, on August 13th. The two sides have spoken, but have not agreed to terms just yet. Meanwhile, President Biden confirmed he will still debate with Trump, as scheduled, in September. 

Business/Tech

Prime Day!

In case you needed even more of a reason to order something you sort of need from Amazon, to have it delivered to your door within 48 hours, we introduce: Prime Day! 

Amazon Prime Day, which features even better deals, was actually two days. It began with the more publicized Tuesday this week, but continued through Wednesday, as well. And Numerator, a data and tech company that serves the market research space, has published data from the first 32 hours of these deals.

So let’s throw a bunch of the numbers at you. As of 8 AM ET yesterday, there were 30,655 orders made, 14,543 households shopping, 62,928 items purchased, 1,293 verified buyer surveys, and one partridge in a pear tree. 

34% of orders were actually under $20. However, the average order was still $60 - which is up from 2023 ($56). Additionally, half(!) of the households have actually made two separate orders, therefore, the average household is spending $120+. 18% of households spent over $200.

What exactly are people buying? Well, three of the top five items were household or grocery products. The most bought item was an Amazon Fire TV Stick (fitting), followed by Premier Protein Shakes, Liquid I.V. Packets, Glad Trash Bags and Blink Outdoor Cameras. The average price per item bought, overall, was $28.47 - talk about a deal! 28% of items purchased were under $10, while 4% of purchased items cost more than $100.

98% of shoppers said they knew it was Prime Day in advance and 89% were Prime members. 77% of purchasers were females and, surprisingly, the age group that made the most purchases? 65 and older. They were responsible for 27% of the orders. Your parents might not be the best with technology, but boy can they sniff out a good deal!

Lastly, 40% of shoppers were “very satisfied” with the deals. You can check out all of the (updated) data right here.

Business

More Layoffs

Google the word “layoffs” and you’ll see a lot of depressing stories from this week. 

Salesforce has cut hundreds of jobs this month, in its latest round of layoffs, after already eliminating 700 positions earlier this year. At the time, those 700 positions were 10% of its workforce. Now, Salesforce, who is based in San Francisco, has eliminated another 300 jobs. The math might not be perfect, but that’s about 14% of their jobs eliminated so far in 2024. Yikes.

But Salesforce is not alone in the technology sector. Intuit announced just last week that it plans to layoff 1,800 employees (10% of its workforce). 384 of these will be at its headquarters, another 215 at the San Diego office, etc. 

OpenText is another company in the same boat, as it eliminates 1,200 jobs, to bring its workforce down to 23,000. And UiPath said it plans to cut 10% of its employee base, which means laying off 4,200 employees!  

The sad reality of all of this news? Two of those companies specifically pointed to AI as the reason why. Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi said in a memo to employees, “The era of AI is one of the most significant technology shifts in our lifetime. This is truly an extraordinary time - AI is igniting global innovation at an incredible pace, transforming every industry and company in ways that were unimaginable just a few years ago. Companies that aren’t prepared to take advantage of this AI revolution will fall behind and, over time, will no longer exist.”

UiPath also said its layoffs are coming amid their focus on AI investment. Remember, Elon Musk just said two months ago at a tech conference that AI will take all of our jobs. So, enjoy yours while you can. Tech layoffs have now exceeded 100,000 for 2024, and we still have five more months to go. 

Economy

Markets Surge

But why though?

The Dow and S&P 500 surged to record highs this week, but warnings for the economy’s future are still out there. 

The Dow Jones surged more than 700 points on Tuesday, securing another all-time closing high, while the S&P 500 also notched another record. The blue-chip index also rose more than 1.8%. Most of this has been driven by the idea that an interest rate cut is near.

However, many are still weary about the financial future. The New York Fed’s recession probability model suggests there is still a 56% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. 

The warning signs they point to: unemployment increased in June to 4.1%, GDP growth slowed from 3.4% at the end of 2023 to 1.4% in the early stages of 2024 (and might need the interest rate cut to improve), credit card debt stands at more than $1.1 trillion and delinquency rates on debt recently hit their highest level in more than a decade. 

Additionally, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted since mid-2022, which is typically a strong recession indicator. 

DataTrek Research co-founder Nick Colas also points to corporate bond spreads as another warning sign. “Corporate bond spreads hit ‘peak confidence’ in the U.S. economy 1-2 months ago and are now drifting their way higher to incorporate some slowing in economic growth. Corporate bonds are whispering ‘economic slowdown’ even as the S&P 500 hangs around record levels,” he said. 

Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, also issued a warning, suggesting that “stocks have gotten a bit over their skis.” We are certainly far from being out of the woods just yet.

Tech

Put a Ring on It

You’ve heard about the smart watch. Well, now it might be about the smart ring. Indian startup Ultrahuman is now offering Afib detection with its Ring Air. This feature is powered by FibriCheck, which is a technique that has been approved by the FDA and European medical device regulators. The AFib detection will be a premium option for the ring users, requiring a $4.90 monthly subscription. 

Now Apple Watch’s have included AFib detection, though through a different detection method. However, the smart rings might be the new craze to take over. Samsung will debut its first finger-worn wellness tracker later this month. And Oura, a veteran in this space, has been making a big push into retail too - as they’ve made their rings available at select Targets, Best Buy and Amazon in recent months.

Ultrahuman’s AFib detection feature is currently available in Australia, the EU, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Singapore, the UK and the United Arab Emirates. They are working to make it available in the United States and India in “the next two-three months,” according to their CEO. 

Sports

MLB All-Star Game

The Major League Baseball All-Star Break has come and gone, as the games will resume tomorrow night. It was a historic week for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as their outfielder Teoscar Hernandez won the Home Run Derby on Monday, becoming the first Dodger to ever do so. 

The next night, Shohei Ohtani became the first Dodger to homer in an All-Star since Mike Piazza in 1996. Despite the homer giving the National League a 3-0 lead, it wasn’t enough for the NL to garner a rare victory. The American League scored five unanswered runs to win, 5-3, as they have now won 10 of the last 11 “Midsummer Classics.” Additionally, the All-Star has only reached nine runs twice since 2007, falling just short on Tuesday. 

Weekly Commute

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